With the NCAA tournament right around the corner, there is a lot to break down including my favorite teams, my biggest sleepers, and my most overrated teams. My fourth favorite as of now to win the national title is North Carolina. After a disappointing season last year not making the tournament, the Tarheels went out and got freshmen Elliot Cadeau and transfers Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram. These players have all added depth top their top seniors Armando Bacot and RJ Davis. I think that UNC could definitely make a run in the tournament this year. My third favorite team as of now is Houston. The Cougars have the best defense by far this season and still a top 20 offense. They play very aggressive and rebound the ball well. They are very similar to the 2019 Virginia team that won the tournament. My second favorite team is Purdue. Purdue still has the stigma of losing to 16-seed Farleigh Dickinson last year which may cause some people not to pick them to go far, but I think this team has heavily upgraded. Led by the best center in the country, Zach Edey averages a double-double and leads the team in scoring. The main reason why the Boilermakers got sent home early last year was because of poor guard play. So they went out and got transfer Lance Jones, who is now averaging just under 10 points per game. Another guard, Braden Smith has also matured greatly since last season and is second on the team in scoring. My number one team, is the former champion Uconn. It’s very impressive that Uconn after losing their 3 best players was able to come back this year even stronger. This team doesn’t have one main ball scorer, which is part of the reason that they are so great, I am very high on what Uconn can do this season.
Along with some of the teams I like, here are three of my most overrated teams, in no particular order. First is Alabama, Currently the 15th ranked team in the country, they offer blistering offense with the best efficiency so far this year. But they have the 73rd defense efficiency. This is never a good sign for teams in the tournament like Baylor from last year who had the 2nd ranked offense but the 107th defense. That Baylor team ended up losing in the 2nd round. My second overrated team is Creighton, currently sitting at 17th in the country. They have consistently beaten the bad teams they have played this year but when they get tested they lose. Another overrated team is Kentucky who are similar to Baylor in that they have a very good offense and a very bad defense. Also, they don’t have a single impressive win this season and have failed to prove themselves whenever they play a good team. My last overrated team is number 11 ranked South Carolina. They boast an impressive 21-4 record in the SEC but have failed to win their big games with the exception of a win at Tennessee that is carrying their ranking. But this team shouldn’t be defined by their one good game, and I don’t see them going far this tournament.
Now for my three most underrated teams. First, Auburn. This team is currently ranked 4th in adjusted efficiency margin but is somehow only ranked 13th. This team plays both sides of the ball at a high level and has multiple guys that can score in the paint and shoot like Jaylin Williams and Johni Broome. I could very well see Auburn finding their way to the final four or even further. My next underrated team is BYU. This is a 3 and-D team, meaning they shoot a lot of threes at a high percentage for their offense, and they lock down on defense well too. They have had a few too many conference losses in the Big 12 which causes them to sit at 19th in rankings but I think they have what it takes to suffocate opposing offenses and knock down the shots they want. My last underrated team is Indiana State. The Sycamores are in a prime position to win the Missouri Valley Conference and, like BYU, they shoot three-pointers at a very high percentage. I think if they can get hot at the right time, they could cause some upsets and make it far. What I worry about is the defense of their star Center Robbie Avila. While Avila is a crafty playmaker and knockdown shooter, he can easily get exposed for his lack of speed on defense. If the Sycamores get matched up against a heavy paint-scoring team, their hopes of a Cinderella story may be squashed.
