It has been three years since President Biden took the White House at the end of the tumultuous 2020 election. Since then, his administration has been forced to navigate numerous challenges, from trying to re-establish normalcy post-pandemic to managing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Now, as the world ushers in 2024, another election cycle is upon the United States, and the race for the White House begins anew. With Biden having already announced his plan to run again this election season, all eyes turn to the Republican party as they try to name a candidate to challenge the incumbent. Will we see a Trump vs. Biden rematch? Or will one of Trump’s challengers take his place?
Like every election season, Iowa kicked things off with its caucus on January 15th. Here, Donald Trump established the tone for the rest of the race. The favorite to win the nomination given his previous role as the 45th President of the United States, Trump won the state, taking 51.0% of the vote, an impressive 30-point victory over the second-place candidate, Ron DeSantis. DeSantis, the Florida Governor, accrued 21.2% of the ballots cast, topping Nikki Haley, the third-place finisher, by a mere two points. The remaining candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, found himself far away in fourth place with 7.7% of the vote, prompting him to suspend his campaign.
As all eyes shift towards the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd, Iowa’s results are incredibly encouraging for Trump’s campaign. Having taken the Hawkeye State with conviction, Trump may ride the wave into New Hampshire, winning another critical early battle. Moreover, the battle for second place could not have gone better for Trump. It is likely that DeSantis would have suspended his campaign had he lost to Haley. However, with second place secured, DeSantis will march on into New Hampshire, splitting the anti-Trump vote with Haley in the process. By keeping the primary a three-man race, DeSantis bolsters Trump’s position in the party, all but sealing both his and Haley’s fates.
While a lot of time remains on the clock for this election cycle, Trump seems to be positioned well in his effort to gain his third consecutive Republican nomination. However, looking ahead to the general election, a recent poll indicates that Trump may not be the best option for the Republican Party. Instead, the data shows that Haley would fare best against Biden, winning by seven points (in the same poll, Trump is estimated to beat Biden by two points). Given Trump’s polarizing presence, many argue that the best way for the Republican Party to secure the White House in 2024 is through an alternative candidate. Regardless, it seems as though the pro-Trump block in the GOP is far too large for this to matter, making a 2020 rematch almost inevitable.
