Former President Donald Trump has been indicted four times since March on both state and federal charges, resulting in 91 felony counts and making him the first U.S. President to have been brought up on criminal charges. The first indictment (New York State charge) in March relates to hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels using campaign funds and, in turn, falsifying business records. The second (Federal), in June charged Trump with mishandling sensitive documents and conspiracy to obstruct the government. In August (Federal), he was charged with obstruction of the 2020 election, and later that month, he was finally charged with similar counts to overturn Joe Biden’s victory in Georgia (Georgia state charge). The trials will happen at the height of the 2024 presidential campaign.
Though one might assume that these indictments would reduce support for the former president, Trump has become more favored recently. The accusations and specifically the resulting mugshots have actually improved his popularity amongst the Right, who believe the whole thing is one big smear campaign fabricated by the Left. According to Time Magazine, Trump is now beating his opponents by 30-50 points in the polls, having raised over $7 million in campaign funds since the mugshots were taken.
How will these charges affect Trump in the upcoming election? Yes, the charges have improved Trump’s popularity amongst conservatives, but this may not be the unintentional win the Conservatives are celebrating. Take a close look at the trial dates for the indictments. All of them take place between March and May of 2024, right in the heat of campaigning. Trump, being the accused, will have to appear in court and won’t be able to campaign for some time, won’t be able to connect with voters or hold rallies. However, while this may hinder Trump’s success, it may not necessarily guarantee the re-election of Joe Biden, who the DNC has already chosen as their democratic candidate.
Joe Biden’s approval ratings are not ideal, with 52% disapproving of Biden (Sep. 12 2023, according to Reuters). Of this statistic, 92% or Republicans disapprove of Biden while only 16% of Democrats disapprove of Biden. And that’s only from one poll. Another poll from CNN says that only 38% of Americans approve of Biden and with conservative commentator Greg Gutfeld at the top of the rating chart for Late Night T.V. there may be more disapproval than recorded. Because of this, Biden may have Trump off his back, but he’ll just have to deal with one of the other candidates: Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Nickie Haley, even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who stands as a democratic opponent. Given Biden’s declining popularity, not to mention his lack of charisma as compared to his rivals, it’s very possible that he’ll lose to a contestor, whomever it may be. It is also entirely possible, assuming Trump is not convicted, that Trump wins the election, regardless of his ability to campaign just given his popularity amongst the conservatives alone. On the other hand, another contestant to Biden such as Nicky Haley or RFK may be able to attract more voters from more parties (Republican, Independent, and Democrat), and may be able to do so more aptly without Trump as a threat. Either way, while it is possible the indictments may cost Trump the election, it may not win it for Joe.
